What Will Happen to Digg in 2007?
With the New Year finally here, I’m sure you have come across your fair share of 2007 prediction entries that really just don’t go out on a limb and really predict anything remarkable. Social sites will grow. Duh. Bloggers will find more ways to make money. No shit. Well let’s put together some thoughtful analysis on what might really happen to the sites that made it big in 2006.
Digg to many is a site that has no ceiling for growth. I don’t believe it. I think Digg will certainly plateau this year if it hasn’t already. It will become another news site where people go to see what’s hot and then move along. It won’t even come close to disappearing because their core audience loves to use it and in all honesty you still find a lot of great stuff there first.
The problem I see with it is that it is one-dimensional. Post stories and Digg stories are essentially the two basic tenets to the site. Sure there are discussions along every frontpage entry, but who really enjoys those besides the masochists who love to jump in the middle of an online mosh pit?
Since content hits Digg fast and furious, search engines will continue to show them love and eventually (if this isn’t the case already) they could run off of organic search results without any worries. Why the investors are looking for more than $100M for this site is beyond me, but the safe bet is to take the money and run as fast as you can.
I don’t see Digg expanding the site to allow for more community interaction, which I think would be the obvious move, but instead just continue to add more topics of discussion. Digg will reamin a powerful site in 2007, but its Headline momentum is almost up. Kevin Rose and Jay Adelson are probably more focused on Revision3 and the lineup of shows over there because it challenges them more so a Digg sale will certainly occur this year.
In the end it really is nothing more than a Fark and Slashdot clone with possibly more people. Who will buy it this year? In all honesty I like NYT stepping up and making a bid to try and capture more of the online crowd as the site would also help them monitor trends for potential articles.
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A Digg NYT purchase is a nice picture, I hadn’t thought of that.
By Justin Ruckman on January 1, 2007 8:03 pm
One of the things about Digg that turns people off is that it’s very focused towards a core group of geeks — those that use open source software, love Apple, think Atheism is the way to go, love watching funny videos, etc. etc. Although I fit most of that profile and enjoy going to Digg, there are only so many people in the world that fit that narrowly-defined subset. If you happen to be a strongly-faithed Christian commenting about how Linux sucks compared to Windows, and that your iPod is a piece of garbage, then expect to gat flamed back to oblivion because your views are a 180 degree flip from everyone else’s on Digg. It’s this narrow userbase that cannot grow beyond its bounds and reach out to “the rest” of the world that will make Digg plateau in popularity.
By Mike Rundle on January 1, 2007 8:14 pm
I think they’re waiting till they can sell it to 443553845362342 million dollars just like what Mr Zuckerburg of Facebook is doing.
Just a personal opinion.
Happy New Year
By Ralph Dagza on January 1, 2007 9:13 pm
I agree, Mike. I like digg, even though I never participate in discussions, I use Linux, love open source software and think Windows sucks, but like you said, there are only so many people like that.
By Ben on January 1, 2007 9:13 pm
Back in 2006, Jason Calacanis predicted a Digg acquisition by CNet. That didn’t happen, and seems even less likely in 2007. I think Digg will continue to plug along on venture capital as it remains unprofitable.
By Ilya Lichtenstein on January 1, 2007 9:58 pm
[...] read more | digg story [...]
By What will happen to Digg in 2007 « Universe_JDJ’s News Blog on January 2, 2007 12:57 am
Mike: Do you agree though that if you get over 600k users per month going to a site that the majority of them could care less about the discussions that go on within the site? However, the issue of actually trying to use Digg to get useful stuff on the frontpage may present itself as a problem, but that problem has been there for a while and it has yet to slow down any.
The niche audience you described is exactly the reason why I like NYT acquiring Digg. I can’t speak as if I know the exact audience that the NYT caters to, but I’m guessing it isn’t this one and so a Digg acquisition would only increase their audience which would be a good thing.
By Scrivs on January 2, 2007 1:23 am
I would personally like to see Digg go to a Canadian company, preferably here in Alberta or in British Columbia. It would be a real pip though if it were available in Quebec.
By Kyle Korleski on January 2, 2007 2:12 am
Wasn’t News Corp supposed to buy digg? I heard on TWiT that Arrington was supposed to break a news about a particular News Corp acquisition and I’m guessing that it’s digg. We shall see.
By Michael on January 2, 2007 6:38 am
[...] As I did yesterday with Digg I would like to explore the future for YouTube in 2007. Unlike Digg I don’t see a ceiling for YouTube because I really do believe it could become the future of television. This doesn’t mean it will become the center of the television universe, but it can provide the model that allows networks to feel confident in moving ahead on the online front. [...]
By What Will Happen to YouTube in 2007? » Wisdump on January 2, 2007 7:07 am
“In the end it really is nothing more than a Fark and Slashdot clone with possibly more people.”
agreed. Despite serious attempts to expand into other areas like video and sport, Digg remains tech/geek oriented. That’s it’s biggest impediment to growing a bigger “monetisable” audience.
re the comment at 7:07 am, is it good form to ping/trackback yourself? :-) at least it makes you have more comments.
Cheers
By ggwfung on January 2, 2007 9:09 am
There’s a really important element of Digg that’s not mentioned in the post. Digg is the best way to get a LOT of traffic to any site fast. If you want to get your story to Slashdot it must really, really be good. If you want to get on Digg – and admittedly it’s getting harder every hour – there’s still a couple of shortcuts you can take and do it relatively easily.
Because of this, Digg became (and will grow in this department a lot more in 2007) the hub for those who are interested in getting exposure on the internet. That’s what makes Digg huge, not the news or the users who just read the news and move on. The idea that Digg is “the place for getting traffic” is turning Digg into a huge internet force.
It does sound a bit like a black hole because this type of growth cannot be sustained forever; however that’s distant future. I’m sure that Digg will continue to grow a lot in 2007, and I’m also sure that if it gets sold, it will be counted in hundreds of millions of dollars.
By franticindustries on January 2, 2007 12:01 pm
Excellent point about using Digg for traffic. A major problem I see though is that many people may simply get frustrated trying to get their stuff on the homepage since they aren’t in the top 100. Also there has to be a point where the amount of stuff that crosses the frontpage is faster than the time people have to visit the site.
By Scrivs on January 2, 2007 3:37 pm
[...] That’s right, once I was focused and had 4 terminal windows open and was hacking away on both the desktop and the laptop (with the dual G4 music server in the back pumping out the jams) I didn’t even flinch. Not only did I mess with Rails and decide on what I wanted to do with that, but I solved a handful of other issues that had been on the burners for weeks. I don’t have an actual schedule, I was just winging it like a mad scientist. The Voices of Vision documentary series is alive and well on Revver now, kicking ass. I have everything set up to make the DNS switch and bring that site to live happily over at Dorsia. Like most hipster companies, I’m trying take 2007 by storm. [...]
By Vocino.com » Getting in (or out of) the Zone on January 17, 2007 11:12 am