With the New Year finally here, I’m sure you have come across your fair share of 2007 prediction entries that really just don’t go out on a limb and really predict anything remarkable. Social sites will grow. Duh. Bloggers will find more ways to make money. No shit. Well let’s put together some thoughtful analysis on what might really happen to the sites that made it big in 2006.
Digg to many is a site that has no ceiling for growth. I don’t believe it. I think Digg will certainly plateau this year if it hasn’t already. It will become another news site where people go to see what’s hot and then move along. It won’t even come close to disappearing because their core audience loves to use it and in all honesty you still find a lot of great stuff there first.
The problem I see with it is that it is one-dimensional. Post stories and Digg stories are essentially the two basic tenets to the site. Sure there are discussions along every frontpage entry, but who really enjoys those besides the masochists who love to jump in the middle of an online mosh pit?
Since content hits Digg fast and furious, search engines will continue to show them love and eventually (if this isn’t the case already) they could run off of organic search results without any worries. Why the investors are looking for more than $100M for this site is beyond me, but the safe bet is to take the money and run as fast as you can.
I don’t see Digg expanding the site to allow for more community interaction, which I think would be the obvious move, but instead just continue to add more topics of discussion. Digg will reamin a powerful site in 2007, but its Headline momentum is almost up. Kevin Rose and Jay Adelson are probably more focused on Revision3 and the lineup of shows over there because it challenges them more so a Digg sale will certainly occur this year.
In the end it really is nothing more than a Fark and Slashdot clone with possibly more people. Who will buy it this year? In all honesty I like NYT stepping up and making a bid to try and capture more of the online crowd as the site would also help them monitor trends for potential articles.